中央银行沟通可以作为货币政策工具吗——基于中国数据的分析

本文通过检验我国中央银行沟通对金融市场的影响,间接考察了其是否具有货币政策工具的效力。分析结果表明:我国中央银行沟通对短期利率和股票日收益率水平及波动性具有显著的、与预期一致的影响,但对长期利率的影响不明显;书面沟通与口头沟通相比,后者的效力更强一些,并且在口头沟通中,中央银行行长比其他人更能影响金融市场。主要的政策含义是沟通可以作为我国货币政策一种新的工具,与传统的工具配合使用有利于提高货币政策的有效性。     

我国基金风格资产收益长记忆性分析——基于修正R/S方法的研究

证券市场是个典型的非线性复杂系统。本文运用修正R/S分析法对我国基金风格资产收益单一分形的基本统计特征进行检验,并与经典R/S方法进行对比分析。研究结果表明:在日、周、月等三种时间标度下Hurst指数均显著大于0.5,表现为持久相关性特征,说明股市风格具有长记忆性;从经典R/S分析结果看,我国股市风格具有显著的分形结构特征,风格资产指数收益率序列具有长记忆性,不同风格资产的业绩具有不同的周期性。     

中国企业的出口市场选择：事实与解释

本文基于2000~2006年中国海关数据库企业 出口市场对的贸易数据,采用条件Logit模型考察中国企业出口市场选择的空间模式。结果表明,中国企业的出口市场选择受企业以往出口经验的影响,存在明显的路径依赖。企业倾向于选择与老出口市场地理邻近或文化相似的出口市场建立新贸易关系,尤其是与前者。其中,外资企业和加工贸易企业的出口市场选择更加依赖于新老出口市场间的各种相似性关系。这提醒我们,企业应充分利用自身的出口经验,尤其是成功的出口经验在相似出口市场间的溢出效应以加强新市场开拓的针对性和有效性,形成结构合理的贸易网络以稳定出口。     

Segmenting a market in the making: Industrial market segmentation as construction

This paper takes an empirical starting point in a claim that Biacore, a pioneering Swedish producer of affinity biosensors, was “in the enviable position of creating its own market” (Abelin, 1997). An in-depth case study traces how Biacore undertook segmentation activities while shaping the market for its new product technology, affinity biosensors. This involved stabilising the modes of exchange with customers, the product and the identity of the company. The efforts of Biacore highlight a constructive dimension of market segmentation that hitherto has received little attention. Rather than a process of describing, deciding and taking action, Biacore engaged in the gradual construction of market segments through an interactive and iterative process involving close collaboration with early users. Simultaneously, the market for the new technology gained shaped. Thus, the paper reports a ‘markets from networks’ story illustrating how the practice of segmenting a market may have consequences for that market.     

Women rule: potato markets,cellular phones and access to information in the Bolivian highlands

In highland Bolivia, potato markets are widespread and access to market information has entered the digital age. Information networks lubricated by ubiquitous cellular technologies are supplanting traditional means of information‐gathering. We explore the impacts of access to cellular phones on market selection, use of social networks to acquire information, and gendered responsibilities within the potato market chain near Cochabamba. The entire family participates in potato production and marketing, but responsibilities are differentiated by gender. Men take a leading role in potato production and women in marketing. Access to cellular phones affects decisions about where to market potatoes and improves the potato marketing process.     

小商品市场发展的国际依托、学术论争与战略操作:浙江证据

浙江省义乌市国际贸易综合改革试点总体方案(以下简称义乌试点)已获国务院批复,义乌试点必须充分发挥义乌小商品批发市场在全球分工协作体系中的独特作用。在探索现代流通新方式方面,大胆探索,实现体制机制的创新与突破,为我国加快转变外贸发展方式,形成经济全球化条件下参与国际经济合作与竞争的新优势提供新动力。     

金融自由化、非对称调整与新兴市场的金融危机

二战后,新兴市场经济(EMS)也存在广泛的金融抑制。抑制政策可能有短期增长效应;但本文理论模型显示,长期内,竞争机制会耗散金融租金,EMS实际增长率低于有保障和自然的增长率。70年代末期以来,EMS放松了金融规制。因价格调整快于数量调整、金融市场调整快于产品和劳动力市场,金融自由化产生负产出效应。负产出是基本的风险源。来自于金融、实际部门的任何冲击以及制度与政策失灵,都可能引发金融危机。抑制程度越深,负产出效应越大,人均产出越低,自由化过程中发生金融危机的概率也越大。本文使用25个国家1980～2001年的数据,以二元选择模型对上述假说进行实证检验。     

Estimating Reaction Functions in Experimental Duopoly Markets

It is well known that, in general, there are a multitude of supergame equilibria in noncooperative duopoly markets, suggesting the inability (without severe restrictions) of theory alone to determine the 'best' strategy in a repeated game context. Axelrod's prisoner's dilemma simulation tournaments have led to the view of the somewhat cooperative 'tit-fortat' approach as an attractive strategy, in particular compared to an alternative strategy of 'always defecting' (choosing at all times the single period Nash solution). In this paper, we use data obtained from two independent posted-offer duopoly experiments to investigate the actual dynamic reaction functions of participants. Neither of the above seems to be commonly employed as a pure strategy.We also provide some support for the Axelrod view of 'tit-for-tat' as the most profitable strategy.     

苏州创新驿站运行中的激励机制——基于委托代理理论视角的研究

创新驿站是科技中介组织在以网络经济为代表的新经济中一种创新型的组织发展形式,其功能是将技术创新和技术合作等科技资源及服务在中小企业间进行跨区域的配置,以提高中小企业转型和升级的效率。创新驿站在我国正处于发展初期,但是,对于创新驿站如何高效运行的经济学、管理学理论研究却相对滞后。创新驿站的运行效率与工作人员的工作密切相关,文章在文献[9]的基础上,运用委托代理理论,针对苏州创新驿站运行的不同时期,给出激励机制的分析,以促使代理人(创新驿站工作人员)更努力、高效地工作,进而促进创新驿站技术转化率的提高,更好地为中小企业的技术创新和技术合作提供支持性服务。